Gami-Catholic breakdown

Know this: I love snow.

It's fun to play it, it makes everything pretty, it brings people together, cancels school at a time of the year when kids most desperately need an unexpected day off, and it reminds us all how nice it is to live at a time when we can just turn the heat up and watch the show.

But snow is breaking my mind today, and the feeling is all too familiar.

This season, Gami-Catholic at the Shootout is the game everyone has pointed to all year, but a few years ago it was Willingboro-Christ the King at Ventnor. CTK had been ranked No. 1, then lost to Marlboro without its point guard, then got it's point back from injury, returning to the level of performance that took it to No. 1 in the first place, settling into the national top 5. Boro had beaten every oppenent -- many of them high-quality teams -- by like 30, and was ranked around No. 15. Nobody knew just how good the Chimeras were, even Crystal, Lateisha and the rest of the team. The CTK game was supposed to tell us, but snow wiped that one off the calendar, and it was never made up. Boro never got the test that it needed going into the playoffs, then got famously dressed down in a ferocious Shabazz first half. A tested team would have known how to respond there, but the Chimeras flailed in the open ocean, and never really made it a game as Shabazz-leaning Dunn Center went nuts.

I'm afraid the Irish are playing the role of Willingboro, and snow is about to rob them of their much-needed pre-playoff punch in the face. Maybe Bloomfield Tech was enough, but things have been going way too well for comfort ever since. CC is probably less prone to overconfidence than that Boro group because the program has never won the big game -- not even a SJ championship -- but it's still worrisome.

If they play, I will be there, even if it's at 5. But I'm fretting that they won't play. And if these reports of the flu sweeping through the Catholic ranks are true, then I don't know what to think. If Gami wins, the Braves will go back to No. 1, there's no question. It would just be a shame to award the C-P Cup based on such a game. If they both win state titles, they could easily meet again, probably as the 2-3 semi in the TOC, but that's looking way too far down the line.

OK. Let's assume they play the game and everyone is healthy. Big assumption, of course, but position by position:
PG edge goes to CC. Gami hasn't ever had a true point in recent memory. Basimah Thompson had the physical capability to be a pure point, but the four 30-footers she took every game DQed her. Plus Crew knows Gami, she almost beat them with Spirit last year.
SG edge goes very slightly to CC. Matera is a more reliable shooter than anyone Gami has. Taylor and James are terrific players, but I'd take a true point and a true shooter over two combo guards in most situations.
SF edge goes to Gami, but I think this might be the most important matchup on the floor. Can Gallagher, with her all-around athletic ability, keep Booker from playing the decisive scoring role that she did against Wilson and AC? The battle of the boards will be won at this position too.
PF edge goes to Gami, but this advantage could easily be negated if Catholic turns the pace up. Rosario is bigger and stronger than Lane, but a running game diminishes her game. Lane is much more effective than Krissy on the run.
C edge goes to CC, but not by that much. I'm really, really interested to see the Ra-Mostafa matchup. Beyond the obvious changing-of-the-guard theme, both players are used to defenses collapsing on them to negate an ever-present size advantage. I expect Booker and Rosario to look to help on Junaid a little bit, but I'm sort of hoping the coaches let the two biggest bigs sort it out by themselves a few times.
One nostalgic aside: When I was covering Temple, the Owls had an enigmatic PF named Lamont Barnes who wasn't worth a bag of sand during the Atlantic 10 regular season because he would always bring the ball down to waist-level where the outsized guard or small forward assigned to help could strip him or otherwise harass. But when Temple got to the NCAA Tournament and played teams like Cincinnati, which had a PF (named Kenyon Martin) who was supposed to be able to be able to handle himself straight up, Barnes lit it up like a lottery pick.
Now, I'm not saying Junaid or Mostafa has the same kind of obvious flaw that Lamont Barnes inexplicably had, but I've never seen either one play straight up against another center or her caliber.
Anyway, moving on.
The Bench edge goes slightly to CC. The Irish have able backups for everyone but Ra, and after the Gami-Wilson game we know that the Braves are susceptible to foul trouble. Gami's reserves are able, especially Ty Abdilla, who I've seen play well in a couple of tough spots, but Plakis, Sharpe, Mahon, Dombrowski, etc., are probably the best bench in SJ. That all changes if -- as the rumors suggest -- three CC starters are out with the flu. Any position where a CC reserve is starting is automatically an edge for Gami, despite the quality of the Irish bench.
Intanglibles probably favor Gami. The Braves have been in more big games so far, they're not protecting an undefeated season, plus they've got a 15 or 20-minute bus ride and CC has a 90-minute one.
Coaching is a wash. I have the utmost confidence in both of those staffs. Goodwin and Palladino have well over 600 career wins between them, and they have both showed a remarkable ability to adjust strategy midgame this year. I've always thought that one sign of a weak coach is an inability to ditch a solid game plan that should work, but doesn't. Both coaches know their teams extremely well, and I'd be shocked if they hadn't done all possible homework.
Like many games, I think this one will be decided by tempo. Which team can impose its will. CC will try to push it, and Gami will try to keep it half-court. The thing that makes the game so intriguing is the fact that Gami can run a little bit and Catholic has perhaps the best half-court player in SJ in Junaid.

Hopefully, all this mindless analysis won't be for nothing. All we need is for the game to come off as planned, with everyone healthy and at full strength, and I'll happily drive my still-muddy car through the snowstorm for four hours or more.

Funny, it didn't seem like too much to ask a few days ago, but now...